Risky Business

February 18, 2025
Phil Krone

Why don’t we talk more about risk?  It permeates business every day. But at the hundreds of meetings and events we participate in each year—both in-person and virtually—we’ve noticed that risk is rarely mentioned.

Maybe risk is  too  much on our minds. In an increasingly uncertain world, risk is a constant companion that we just don’t pay much attention to. Maybe it’s fear of failing that keeps awareness at bay. Either way, the right attitude is critical. “Don’t be scared to try stuff,” advises Paralympics gold medalist rugby player Mark Zupan. Says  La La Land  Academy-Award winner Emma Stone: “Be excited to fail.”*

What risks does your business face? How do you identify and deal with them? Here are some of our thoughts. Tell us yours.  Contact us with your comments. Gold medals or golden Oscars may not be in our futures, but golden opportunities are. Let’s “try stuff” and go for the gold to start the new year.

Developing New Products:  Developing new products is a classic and significant risk. Traditionally, nine out of ten new products fail, which can be catastrophic to a business in ways much of the public can’t appreciate. The cost of research and development can be extremely high. And even the best hitters in baseball get it right only three times out of ten. How many major league teams would pay top dollar for a .100 hitter? Individual new business products  must be  homeruns from time to time. You must also be comfortable charging a justifiable price that gives you a fair profit margin. In other words, if the value is there, learn how to communicate that value and get the full price your product deserves. (We can help.)

Larger companies reduce their risk because they comb research studies for ideas and conduct their own qualitative and quantitative research. They test products in various markets and conditions. They can explore—and then discard—new products before investing too much. What about smaller companies? A simple tactic some use is to just “ask around” in their markets to gauge the first impressions of a few qualified, honest colleagues and customers. This approach is in fact legitimate qualitative research that doesn’t cost much, if anything, but can be surprisingly useful. It often provides at least a reasonable idea of what to do next—from killing the idea to doing more in-depth research to testing a concept or even to producing a product or launching a service. First impressions are often telling.

Knowing Which Business You’re In—or Should Be In:  Someone buying a bar on Chicago’s north side near Wrigley Field, the iconic home of the Chicago Cubs, might anticipate a low level of risk. Thirsty baseball fans will always be looking for cold beers, and the Cubs will always be a draw . . . until an out-of-the blue pandemic shuts down nearly everything: restaurants, bars, even iconic ballparks. In clinical business-school speak, this unhappy circumstance might be described as “an acute, unknowable external threat.” Ain’t it the truth.

After he invented Kitty Litter and “brought the cat indoors,” entrepreneur Edward Lowe thought his future lay in the retail pet-care business. The next obvious step? Open pet stores. Unfortunately, he soon learned the hard way that  his  business was  manufacturing  , not retail pet care. Determining where his expertise truly was—what business was he in—might have reduced the risk to zero. In other words, not pursuing the pet-store business at all.

Getting the Timing Right:  Related to the risks of developing new products are the risks of entering new markets. One of those is timing, either too early or too late. Even well-run corporate giants can get it wrong. Cisco recently announced that it is, in the words of  The Wall Street Journal  (December 29), “pulling the plug on a flagship effort to help digitize the modern city, the latest example of a big tech company struggling to enter a new market.” The article lists other large-company, large-investment risks that failed: IBM’s attempt to bring its Watson artificial intelligence system into industries like health care, Microsoft’s fumble in its effort to break into the hot smartphone market, and Intel’s inability to play a bigger role in augmented virtual reality. In fact, The January 23rd  Wall Street Journal  reported that IBM, once the largest US company in the 1980s, has been the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average since January 1. This despite being in technology, the hottest sector of the economy. That’s a clear indication of how much risk is out there and how hard it is over time to be successful in business.

Facing “Torpedo” Risks—Litigation, for Instance:   Most businesses face multiple risk-generating challenges. For others, a single factor can be critical, even one that’s known. A construction company client shared with us that any issue that results in litigation on a construction project practically guarantees that the project won’t make money. The implications for lawsuits based on design, management, quality control, and other areas are endless. Risk mitigation in this kind of situation calls for superior diligence and quality—and ready access to a skilled law firm experienced in your industry.

Recognizing Red Light Risks:   The current bull stock market offers a good example. But your business can be put on high alert by flashing red lights in your company, your industry, and the markets of your customers and suppliers. Do you know what they are? Are you paying attention?

Stock purchases incur at least two kinds of risk—the usual one that stocks can lose value and a second related to the amount of leverage used if those purchases are financed. When the direction of a bull market finally turns negative, margin calls from lenders can result in increased selling to satisfy those calls.  Record  margin debt traditionally signals that “bouts of volatility” aren’t far away ( The Wall Street Journal  , December 28) and greater risk as the market falls further. Flashing Red Light: In November, investors borrowed a record $722.1 billion against their investment portfolios.

A fundamental way to mitigate risk is through diligent preparation.

Knowingly or not, Zupan and Stone followed a common sports philosophy advocated by both Alabama’s legendary football coach Bear Bryant and Duke’s (also legendary) basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski, Coach K:  The will to prepare to win is as important as the will to win.  A key factor in productive preparation is training and other hard-work processes that change behavior to develop and reinforce new habits.

We know that’s true, in part, because we train business developers such as sales reps, executives, and professionals in consultative selling. The very best—the 20 percent that bring in 80 percent of the new business—use the same behaviors to sell. But they’re not the behaviors that less productive business developers use, because they form a customized sales process that other salespeople don’t have. Building a truly customized sales process is a low-risk investment. It not only helps to sell current products and services but also accelerates the ability to sell new ones and to mitigate the risk of launching new products. We’ve seen too many solid products fail because the company’s sales process wasn’t up to the task of supporting a new product.

We know how to mitigate that risk by customizing your sales process. We would love to speak with you about how risk mitigation can increase the odds of success for your next new market entry—and will likely improve the sales of your current products. Be proactive where you can control risk; be prepared for risks you cannot anticipate.

To learn more, please get in touch with us at 847-446-0008 Ext. 1 or  pkrone@productivestrategies.com .

* Stone is not an athlete, and her philosophy doesn’t come from athletics, but it does come from overcoming similar competitive obstacles. Improvisation troupes were her sports teams, she explains. That’s where she learned lessons fundamental to sports: Get knocked down, get back up, use experience and training to get better, power through to the finish. Repeat.

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Here are the major takeaways: 1) The best way to gain an information advantage is to show up and do discovery in person. 2) If you can build bridges in addition to sales-to-purchasing, such as quality-to-quality, production-to-production, and engineering-to-engineering, you have increased the odds of learning what you need to know to gain a competitive advantage. 3) When told the business is not coming your way, but you know an order hasn’t been placed yet, keep asking what it would take to bring the project back to you. 4) Make sure your presentation is “prospect-centric”—that it is about the customer and his issues—not “seller-centric” and only about your capabilities. 5) If the program is large enough, or important enough, hiring outside resources to get the win can be a sound investment. 6) When following up on a submitted proposal, don’t ask “how do we look?” That reduces the discussion to price. Please get in touch with us directly at 847-446-0008 Ext. 1 or pkrone@productivestrategies.com .
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You still don’t want the little black book information to walk out the door when a sales rep moves on either on their own initiative or yours. While not all companies think about another, perhaps more subtle component, great leverage also comes in the form of a proprietary sales process that all salespeople should be trained in. That way if a top performer leaves, the process doesn’t leave with them. (Ask us about our popular consultative sales training course, FOCIS®, which helps our clients build proprietary sales processes and trains business developers to use them.) Are your salespeople presenting your company’s product or service accurately? Two examples. We once worked with a company whose people told prospects that they were in the oil business. No, they were not. Their highly effective service was helping to absorb oil off shop floors and disposing of it. The shortcut explanation made it sound like they were in the oil exploration business. Not even close. And not only was that description confusing, but it also called the reps’ competence into question. Another instance that’s perhaps a little more subtle comes from a networking group I was in. Whenever one of our members gave the elevator speech version of his product, he said he provided sexual harassment training. No, just the opposite. He provided sexual harassment prevention training. He was not offering training in how to harass people. Protecting how you’re different from competition can be a valuable investment. For the Lettuce Entertain You restaurant group, restaurant design is a key differentiator. Before launching a new concept, the design is top secret, down to details like the tablecloths and the kind of wood that provided the concept’s style and personality. These things were protected with the help of intellectual property (IP) attorneys. At one point we trained the business developers of the company that supplied the wood elements for a Lettuce Entertain You restaurant design—in this case, Maggiano’s Little Italy. The specific elements that made up the various woods themselves as well as how they were incorporated into the design were extremely detailed. You don’t have to be in the restaurant business to take away a key lesson here. We’ve found that too many business owners and executives assume that what they do is not different enough from what their competitors do to set their businesses apart. In some thirty years of working with myriad B2B companies, we have never come across a business that didn’t have important points of differentiation. Your business is different, whether you think so or not, and that difference can be invaluable not only in marketing but also in sales. Keep in mind that information can be discovered and developed in many different and imaginative ways. For example, Subaru reportedly identified a new color for its cars—Cool Gray Khaki—by tracking trends in ski jackets. The insights improved targeting of at least one marketing segment for cars—young, active people—by better understanding what trends they were buying in other areas. In 2018, 18 percent of all the cars Subaru sold were Cool Gray Khaki. Finally, while we all know this cyber information safety tip, it bears repeating—at least from our own experience as well as that of others. If you’re too eager to come up with new insights, you can put yourself in harm’s way by clicking on email links or attached files whose sources you don’t really know. It’s especially important when their appearance mimics trusted sources you do know. We all also know the solution. To determine a source’s validity, call, text, or email that source separately. Some forty years ago, futurist and author of the mega-bestselling book Megatrends, famously said: “We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge.” That statement might or might not still be true. One thing that is true is that we’ve learned a lot more about how to turn information into knowledge, which makes the information we can absorb without drowning all the more valuable. To learn more, please call us at 847-446-0008 Ext. 1 or pkrone@productivestrategies.com .
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